Negotiating marginal VFR enroute to Kalamazoo

Plane: Cessna 172
Route: 40I-AZO
Weather - 40I: Clear, 82 degrees, wind 160 degrees at 9 knots
Weather - AZO: Overcast, 74 degrees, wind 180 degrees at 5 knots

When it comes to flight planning, there are two sources of weather information I find invaluable. The first is NOAA's GFS MAV MOS graphics, which graphically depict what the weather models spit out of the supercomputers every 6 hours - the forecast visibility, ceiling height, and thunderstorm probability are particularly useful to me. The second is every local NWS office's Forecast Discussion, which is a rather technical discussion of what the meteorologists are interpreting from the current conditions and models, including a dedicated aviation section. Combined, they make it possible to watch trends develop and better understand the reasoning behind the simplified-for-public-consumption forecasts.

All week it was clear that rain and scattered thunderstorms were in tonight's forecast; the real uncertainty was whether a window with a clear path to Michigan would be open. At first it looked good, then mid-week it appeared to deteriorate. But this morning, after another detailed analysis of the graphics and discussions, it looked like it might just work out and I made the initial "go" call. A line of storms that moved through overnight was pushing east and the second wave and approaching cold front weren't expected to move into west Michigan until roughly 8pm. Visibility and ceilings would be approaching MVFR conditions along the final 1/3 of the route, but I'm familiar with the area and considered that acceptable for this flight.

Our friend Jeff, who we're staying with this weekend, planned on picking us up (thanks again!) and I sent him directions to our first, second, and third airport options. We originally were debating between Plainwell Municipal (61D) and Kalamazoo, as they live right in between. But I had already scratched Plainwell since the weather was likely to move in there first. So I sent him directions to pick us up not only at AZO, but also Three Rivers (HAI) and Battle Creek (BTL) since they are south and east, respectively - both good divert options if that became necessary.

I continued to closely monitor the weather at work and by lunchtime it was clear that a window still remained but we needed to be in the air by 5pm. Thankfully I was able to head out early, and left for home around 2:30. I quickly packed and got my final weather briefing in an hour; Gina met me at the house when she got off work and we headed straight to Stewart. She loaded the 172 while I organized the cockpit, fully fueled both tanks, and completed my preflight.

This quick video captured the conditions of today's flight's quite well

We took off about 4:55, right on schedule to beat the weather. I first leveled at 4,500 feet and contacted Columbus Approach for flight following up to KAZO. There was a broken cloud deck at 5,000 to 5,500 feet so that was the highest we could go. Based on the forecasts, I expected to have to descend to 3,500 or 2,500 as we approached Kalamazoo due to dropping ceilings. The PTT switch on my side was acting up and only transmitting intermittently so I swapped the plugs of my and Gina's headsets and used her PTT for the remainder of the flight.

Columbus handed us off to Fort Wayne Approach, which was nice - sometimes in that area you get handed off to Indy Center, and their radar coverage down low can be spotty. Soon after the handoff the clouds bases began to drop and I descended to 3,500 feet. Visibility was still around 10 miles and I was looking down upon many familiar roads and landmarks. Closer to Fort Wayne, I spotted an area of rain showers and decreased visibility to the northwest; the ceiling also decreased again slightly so I descended to 3,000 feet. At this point conditions were officially MVFR but I felt safe continuing, especially with many airports nearby. I also kept dialing in nearly every AWOS along our route to confirm conditions weren't deteriorating quicker than forecast.

We had to gradually descend while enroute to remain below the clouds

We passed through some of those rain showers over the final 30 minutes of our flight. At times visibility was definitely down near 5 miles, which I confirmed with AWOS broadcasts (though I think the lowest I heard over the radio was 6 or 7 miles) and a visual check of landmarks out the window and the GPS / sectional chart. Fort Wayne handed us off to Kalamazoo Approach roughly over top of US-20. Another plane that had just departed Angola to the east called in, also flying VFR to Kalamazoo. It's always nice to know someone else is up there with you!

I spotted Kalamazoo just over 7 miles out when the two familiar lakes south of the airport came into view. Traffic was light and I was cleared onto a long left downwind for Runway 17. Airport in sight, I descended from 3,000 down to pattern altitude, roughly 1,900 feet. The light wind was nearly directly on our nose and I touched down softly with the stall horn whining and a chirp of the mains on the runway. We turned off on Taxiway E and taxied to the FBO.

Radar after we arrived in Kalamazoo

Flight rules and radar shortly after our arrival

We slid in just before the front (and storms) moved through

A lineman marshalled us into a parking spot at Duncan Aviation. Fellow pilot friend and former Kalamazoo resident Chris loves the folks there and I agree - they do always take good care of us. Even when in a lowly rental, which doesn't class up the ramp nearly as nice as Warrior 481. Inside, I filled out a little paperwork and opted for their "Storm" option - they'd tie the plane down outside but move it into a hangar if they felt incoming weather was likely to damage the airplane. For $50. Better safe than sorry, though, right?

There's certainly a difference between flying over known, flat terrain with <3,000 foot ceilings and flying over unknown, slightly bumpier terrain with <3,000 foot ceilings. While I still think today's flight nearly pushed the envelope, I planned it extensively and had plenty of outs (i.e. airports to divert to) along the way. Then again, that trip to NY four years ago laid a solid foundation for decision-making that undoubtedly helped me with this flight. Just goes to show how pilots continually develop their skills and every flight, at least in some small part, adds to one's experience bucket.

Flight Track: Google Earth KMZ File 
Today's Flight: 2.0 hours
Total Time: 338.7 hours

To fly or not to die

Plane: Cessna 172 
Route: 40I, Local 
Weather: Broken clouds, 78 degrees, wind 180-240 degrees at 8-12 knots

Pardon the sensationalist headline; I promise I haven't been watching that much CNN lately. But this was one of those days that required a serious go / no-go decision. For those of you who aren't pilots, a) the title pays slight homage to the media's usual inability to cover anything aviation-related without resorting to sky is falling tactics (I'm sure doctors harbor similar thoughts when anchors wax poetic about viral outbreaks, teachers when they discuss standardized testing, etc.) and b) while departing today certainly would not have led to imminent death, it could have been a very bad first decision in an accident chain by the end of the weekend. Read on.

Ok, tangential discussion aside, back to the decision that did not involve LeBron. We were supposed to fly to Syracuse this weekend for Gina's cousins' graduation party. Flying was really the only option since it's a 10 hour drive or a 4 hour flight and Gina has to work Sunday afternoon (strike one - time and schedule pressure). I've been closely monitoring the forecasts; the trip went from seeming feasible earlier in the week to looking quite iffy by this morning (strike two - forecasts trending in the wrong direction). Nearing our planned departure time, it was obvious a Sunday return would not work due to forecast low ceilings and visibility, but I momentarily considered returning Saturday afternoon before further analysis of the forecast (strike three - VFR pilot flying 400 nm across a stationary front and possible embedded thunderstorms). So, in what I can only label a good no-go decision, we cancelled the trip.

But I was already at the airport. And - an isolated thunderstorm having passed by a half hour prior - the weather was currently quite conducive to flying. Good enough reason to at least putter around the pattern before heading back home.

I loaded far less baggage than lie under my hatchback's hatch into the 172 - just myself, my GPS logger, and my headset. N2814L had flown just prior to my arrival so the engine quickly roared to life with one small shot of primer. I taxied over to the fuel pump and topped off the tanks.

As you can see, the wind picked up at times

Gusty winds had come and gone throughout the day and remained in the forecast but it was rather calm when I first departed. The Skyhawk took to the sky without much fuss under the relatively light load. One of the jump planes on the field departed behind me with a load of meat missiles so I made sure to wait to turn crosswind until passing abeam the jump zone. Though the winds at this point were steady the heat kicked up some decent thermals and I was constantly adjusting the power on short final; I touched down rather smoothly just past the threshold.

The second lap was decent and the third was great - total greaser on the landing in spite of winds that now were a gusting, almost direct crosswind. I was tempted to call it quits right there but I wanted to keep flying. On the fourth time around, I pulled the power abeam the numbers on downwind and negotiated a mostly-successful power-off 180, slowly adding flaps until I had all 40 degrees out right before touchdown. I landed slightly long with a solid thump but it wasn't too bad given the conditions. My final lap was nearly as good as the third with a smooth rotation into a crab on takeoff, culminating in a smooth crosswind landing in the gusty winds.

It's always disappointing to cancel a trip, especially last-minute, but I sure as hell don't intend to be the kind of pilot who doesn't learn from his own past experience. Having discussed the trip with a few more experienced pilots (including Upstate NY local Chris) I'm honestly not even sure we would have launched if I had my instrument rating. But it wouldn't have been remotely logical to make a go of it as a VFR-only pilot. It's better to be down here wishing we were up there, than up there wishing we were down here, as the saying goes.

Hindsight

As you may expect, I couldn't help but check the conditions along our planned route numerous times throughout the weekend. While it may have been clear enough along the Lake Erie shoreline (in lieu of flying the direct, more inland route over western PA/NY) at times, the overall reality was marginal at best. To hit flyable conditions would likely have required near-psychic timing, too, as I saw much more IFR or very marginal VFR both days.

Saturday mid-afternoon radar

Saturday early evening lowest reported ceilings

Saturday early evening TAFs (red = below my minimums)

Even locally I never saw a break in the weather on Saturday (we ended up running errands and driving around the area all afternoon) that I think we would have easily made it home through, had we left earlier. So, now with the benefit of hindsight, initial no-go decision confirmed. Flying to NY was definitely the right thing not to do.

Flight Track: Google Earth KMZ File 
Today's Flight: 0.7 hours
Total Time: 328.5 hours

2010 Summer Adventure - Days 4 thru 6

Most pilots have heard a variation of the following phrase at some point in their training or flying career:

"It's better to be on the ground, wishing you were flying, than to be flying, wishing you were on the ground."

Well that's what I was faced with in the middle of our trip. No matter how much I consulted the radar, Flight Service, and the weather gods we found ourselves stuck in Escanaba. We beat the weather in on Sunday (the original plan was to depart Tuesday morning) and then it never really left us behind. At least we got to spend some extra time with Gina's grandma!

Whether it was a line of thunderstorms and convective SIGMETs or LIFR ceilings and fog, the prognosis was not very conducive to VFR flight. I'll push my comfort zone slightly from time to time and build experience but it's certainly not something I was about to do on a long cross-country adventure over unfamiliar territory.

Let's just call this experience Why Having an Instrument Rating is Useful 101!

2010 Summer Adventure - Planning

I'm sitting here at our kitchen table having just finished plotting routes on Sectional charts for the past half hour. Tomorrow is a big day as Gina and I will hop in a 172 and embark on a very long flying adventure. We're going to depart Stewart bright and early and head for Traverse City, MI. This weekend's the National Cherry Festival and we're going to enjoy the Blue Angels as they make their biennial appearance at the airshow. I plan on stopping in Jackson, MI on the way for lunch and fuel - it's right about at the halfway point.

Ladies and gentlemen, THIS is going to be a true cross-country!

We'll get out of Traverse City on the Fourth of July before noon so we can avoid the airshow TFR and make our way to Mackinac Island. Following a few hours there, we'll fly across the Straits of Mackinac and past the mighty Mackinac Bridge and follow the southern coast of the Upper Peninsula all the way to Escanaba. We'll park the 172 there for a couple nights and grab a rental car to visit Gina's grandma, who lives nearby.

Come Tuesday, we'll hope back in the airplane and fly direct to Oshkosh. Even though I have to miss Airventure this year I'm certainly going to land at OSH if I'm flying right by! Hopefully we have some time to enjoy the Airventure Museum and grab a bite to eat. Depending on the time of day, we might stay overnight in Oshkosh. If it's early enough we'll head back home to Stewart instead.

The flight back will take us past Chicago and I intend to fly the Lake Michigan shoreline route at about 1,500 feet AGL - it should be a beautiful sight. From there we'll turn southeast and land in Rochester, IN for a bite and fuel. Then it's a straight shot of about an hour and fifteen minutes back home to Stewart. I know that I don't even have to tell any of you how much I'm looking forward to this trip - wish us luck! :)

Preparing for my first cross-country

I was really hoping to be able to make up for some of the lost flight time due to the Japan trip. Unfortunately, Mother Nature was not in any mood to allow me into the sky today. I can't be too upset since we desperately needed the rain here, but it's no fun as a VFR pilot to look out the window all day and see low clouds, low visibility, and plenty of precip. Instead of going up, Dave and I sat down to discuss airspace in a session of ground school.

My airspace knowledge is pretty solid after lots of reading and studying of the regulations so we quickly moved on to cross-country flight planning. Technically speaking, any time you fly away from the immediate area of your departure airport you are flying cross-country. For many training requirements, however, the definition includes a clause that one point of landing must be greater than 50 nautical miles straight-line from the point of departure. So to keep things simple, any time I talk about cross-country flying it means I'm headed off 50 miles or more.

Discussion complete, Dave decided that we're going to use tomorrow's lesson for my first cross-country flight. We're going to head East and fly to Pickaway County Memorial Airport (CYO) in Circleville, OH. It's roughly 55 nautical miles away and is pretty much due South of Columbus for those looking at a map. I left with the homework to complete my flight plan and call Flight Service (pilots call these folks for weather, notices to airmen, and other important information used in planning a flight) to get the weather and winds.

My flight plan on a Sectional chart - image from SkyVector.com

If you click on the above image to see it full-size, you can see my route in red with my checkpoints marked with squares. You need checkpoints to confirm your route and check your groundspeed. This form of navigation, where you look out the window and reference objects on the ground, is called Pilotage. As you can imagine, selecting proper objects is rather important. Things like lakes, airports, intersections, railroad tracks, and highways can be great checkpoints. I'm not entirely sure that my last checkpoint before CYO (high-tension power lines) is going to be easy to spot from the air but I figure it will be a good learning experience one way or the other.

Once you have the route, you measure the distance between the points and based on your known airspeed and reported winds aloft you are able to determine the time in transit. In calculating compass headings you have to make corrections for variation in the Earth's magnetic field (corrections are printed right on navigation charts) and your own compass' magnetic deviation. Using a flight computer, winds are plotted and the correction angle (turning into or away from the wind to stay on your desired course across the ground) and headwind or tailwind can be determined. Add all this up and you will have your total trip length, both in terms of distance and time, and necessary headings to fly.

I'm really excited to truly go somewhere and hopefully I can learn a lot tomorrow afternoon. As always, I'll have a post on here about the lesson and I'll be reporting back on just how well my first try at flight planning worked out up in the sky!